Bayesian Networks

Numbers war: How Bayesian vs frequentist statistics influence AI


In other words, infected people test positive 99 per cent of the time and healthy people test negative 99 per cent of the time. We also need a figure for the prevalence of the infection in the population; if we don't know it, we can start by guessing that half of the population is infected and half is healthy. But this line of reasoning ignores the fact that 1 per cent of the healthy people will test positive and, as the proportion of healthy people increases, the number of those healthy people who test as positive begins to overwhelm those who are infected and also test positive. In slightly more formal terms we would say that the number of false positives (healthy people being misdiagnosed) begins to overwhelm the true positives (infected people testing positive).

Bayesian Basics, Explained


Andrew Gelman: Bayesian statistics uses the mathematical rules of probability to combines data with "prior information" to give inferences which (if the model being used is correct) are more precise than would be obtained by either source of information alone. You can reproduce the classical methods using Bayesian inference: In a regression prediction context, setting the prior of a coefficient to uniform or "noninformative" is mathematically equivalent to including the corresponding predictor in a least squares or maximum likelihood estimate; setting the prior to a spike at zero is the same as excluding the predictor, and you can reproduce a pooling of predictors thorough a joint deterministic prior on their coefficients. When Bayesian methods work best, it's by providing a clear set of paths connecting data, mathematical/statistical models, and the substantive theory of the variation and comparison of interest. Bayesian methods offer a clarity that comes from the explicit specification of a so-called "generative model": a probability model of the data-collection process and a probability model of the underlying parameters.



Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods Introduction to the philosophy and practice of Bayesian methods and answering the question, "What is probabilistic programming?" Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC We explore modeling Bayesian problems using Python's PyMC library through examples. Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods Introduction to the philosophy and practice of Bayesian methods and answering the question, "What is probabilistic programming?" Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC We explore modeling Bayesian problems using Python's PyMC library through examples.

Introduction to Machine Learning & Face Detection in Python


This course is about the fundamental concepts of machine learning, focusing on neural networks, SVM and decision trees. These topics are getting very hot nowadays because these learning algorithms can be used in several fields from software engineering to investment banking. Learning algorithms can recognize patterns which can help detect cancer for example or we may construct algorithms that can have a very very good guess about stock prices movement in the market. We will talk about Naive Bayes classification and tree based algorithms such as decision trees and random forests.

Advances in Bayesian methods for big data


With the primary goal of building intelligent systems that automatically improve from experiences, machine learning (ML) is becoming an increasingly important field to tackle big data challenges, with an emerging field of "Big Learning," which covers theories, algorithms and systems on addressing big data problems. Co-authors Jun Zhu, Jianfei Chen, Wenbo Hu, and Bo Zhang cover the basic concepts of Bayesian methods, and review the latest progress on flexible Bayesian methods, efficient and scalable algorithms, and distributed system implementations. "Bayesian methods are becoming increasingly relevant in the Big Data era to protect high capacity models against overfitting, and to allow models adaptively updating their capacity. The scientists also discuss on the connection with deep learning, "A natural and important question that remains under addressed is how to conjoin the flexibility of deep learning and the learning efficiency of Bayesian methods for robust learning," they write.

Machine Learning Basics with Naive Bayes


She shares her mistakes and what she learned. She also give us her favorite hack for making a soundproof iPad booth for recording.

Stopword removal (suprisingly) decreases accuracy of naive-bayes model


Stop words typically remove such things as "a, an, the, it". However some text classification tasks are more abstract. Stop words are, by definition, words that contain no information for your classification task. There is no universal set of stop words that will improve all text classification tasks.

Applying Bayes Theorem: Simulating the Monty Hall Problem with Python


After Monty opens the door containing a goat, which of these remaining doors presents a better chance of winning the car? After Monty opens a door revealing a goat, there are two doors remaining for a contestant to choose from. To test Bayes' Theorem on the probability of switching vs. staying, I will use the NumPy (Numerical Python) library to generate random door selections and random door's containing a car. If a contestant initially selects the winning door, Monty will choose at random between the other two doors.

Naive Bayes Classification explained with Python code


In classification tasks we are trying to produce a model which can give the correlation between the input data and the class each input belongs to. For example, the dataset contains datapoints belonging to the classes Apples, Pears and Oranges and based on the features of the datapoints (weight, color, size etc) we are trying to predict the class. If the training dataset chosen correctly, the Classifier should predict the class probabilities of the new data with a similar accuracy (as it does for the training examples). The dataset contains input examples, and each input example has feature values (here).